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CS:GO Case Odds Explained

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CS:GO Case Odds Explained

Over nearly ten years, Valve has generated a skins economy worth around $1 Billion, literally making the money out of a great idea and thin air. Counter-Strike has grown continuously over the last few years, attracting more players to commit to in-game transactions to interact with the skins market, whether opening cases or purchasing skins directly through Valve or a third-party website. However, most players who open cases don't understand the gambling odds they're committing towards. Therefore, this article will explain just that! 


CS:GO - What Are The Chances Of Getting A Knife?

To be very direct, slim to none, most players commit to opening cases after feeling a sense of false entitlement, the "it's coming soon" mentality, or the "I've come this far" state of mind. However, most know that attitude contributes to downfall, especially those who understand the unforgiving case odds behind each Counter-Strike case. 

Below are the case odds for each rarity (non-Stat-Track) within Counter-Strike Global Offensive:

  • Special Item (Knife/Gloves): 0.25575% 
  • Covert (Red): 0.63939%
  • Classified (Pink): 3.19693%
  • Restricted (Purple): 15.98465%
  • Mil-Spec (Blue): 79.92327%

Below are the case odds for each rarity (Stat-Track) within Counter-Strike Global Offensive:

  • Special Item (Knife/Gloves): 0.02558% 
  • Covert (Red): 0.06394%
  • Classified (Pink): 0.31969%
  • Restricted (Purple): 1.59847%
  • Mil-Spec (Blue): 7.99233%

Most players will be questioning where these odds appeared from. Various government powers from countries from around the world enforce companies such as Valve to disclose their odds for public information, allowing gamblers to understand their odds and chances of winning. More specifically, China is one of these countries, and these odds are displayed on

Hopefully, these statistics show how rare it can be to obtain a knife within Counter-Strike. Players who desire to unbox any Stat-Track knife have a 0.02558% chance, meaning that statistically, you need to open 3,904 cases to obtain a Stat-Track knife. This hopefully highlights that despite your dreams of opening an expensive knife, it's probably cheaper to purchase one directly from the market at full value, even if the knife is $1,000. Once you open a knife, you're not even guaranteed something above $100; gamble safely, dear friends!